Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
New York Mets ML (-120, FanDuel) · confidence 53.7% of 10,000 sims · edge -0.8 pts · 0u
Andrew Painter (5.54 ERA, 1.44 WHIP) vs Christian Scott (3.76 ERA, 1.26 WHIP).
Projected 4–4.5; sim total 8.5 against a 8 line; park factor 0.96.
Market at board time: moneyline +105 / -124 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -120 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 54.3% vs de-vigged market 53.2%: 1.1-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 53.7% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -0.8 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.305 vs league 0.322 (gap +0.017, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 70°F at first pitch: run environment x1.000. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (-107, LowVig.ag) · model 55.6% · edge +3.9 pts · divergence +5.0 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +105 / -124 | +106 / -124 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-109 / u-112) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (-107, LowVig.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date