Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Texas Rangers ML (-103, Caesars) · confidence 50.2% of 10,000 sims · edge -0.6 pts · 0u
José Soriano (3.56 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) vs Cal Quantrill (2.90 ERA, 1.05 WHIP).
Projected 4–4; sim total 8.1 against a 7.5 line; park factor 0.98.
Market at board time: moneyline -110 / -109 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -103 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 50.4% vs de-vigged market 49.9%: 0.5-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 50.2% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -0.6 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.324 vs league 0.322 (gap -0.003, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 7.5 (+103, Caesars) · model 52.0% · edge +2.8 pts · divergence +3.5 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -110 / -109 | -104 / -113 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 7.5 (+103, Caesars) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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