Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Chicago White Sox ML (-122, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 53.6% of 10,000 sims · edge -1.3 pts · 0u
Jackson Jobe (3.89 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) vs Sean Burke (3.47 ERA, 1.20 WHIP).
Projected 4.3–4.8; sim total 9.1 against a 8 line; park factor 1.03.
Market at board time: moneyline +110 / -127 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -122 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 53.3% vs de-vigged market 54.0%: 0.8-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 53.6% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -1.3 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Jackson Jobe under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.355 vs league 0.322 (gap -0.034, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 69°F at first pitch: run environment x0.995. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +110 / -127 | +111 / -130 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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