Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
St. Louis Cardinals ML (-111, LowVig.ag) · confidence 73.4% of 10,000 sims · edge +20.8 pts · 0u
Andrew Alvarez (3.35 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) vs Michael McGreevy (3.83 ERA, 1.24 WHIP).
Projected 4.6–4.5; sim total 9.1 against a 8.5 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline -1 / -115 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -111 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 fired: raw model sees 48.6%, de-vigged market says 98.2%: a 49.6-point divergence (cap 12). When the model and the market disagree this hard, the market usually knows something our inputs do not (lineups, injury news, form). Demoted to lean pending manual review.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.300 vs league 0.322 (gap +0.021, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 97°F at first pitch: run environment x1.106. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 8.5 (-113, LowVig.ag) · model 56.9% · edge +3.8 pts · divergence +5.1 pts
👁 Watch (R8-hold, 0u): St. Louis Cardinals ML (-111, LowVig.ag) · model 73.4% · edge +20.8 pts · divergence -49.6 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -1 / -115 | +126 / -148 |
| Total | 8.5 | 9 (o-109 / u-111) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 8.5 (-113, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+0.89u paper).
❌ Watch pick (R8-hold, paper, 0u staked): St. Louis Cardinals ML (-111, LowVig.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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