Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Cleveland Guardians -1.5 run line · confidence 45.4% of 10,000 sims · edge -6.2 pts · 0u
Jack Perkins (6.14 ERA, 1.48 WHIP) vs Gavin Williams (3.78 ERA, 1.10 WHIP).
Projected 3.6–4.7; sim total 8.4 against a 7 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline +200 / -245 (consensus at board time) · total 7.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -230 exceeds the day-game juice cap (-170): pivoted off the moneyline to CLE -1.5 (covers 45.4% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 58.9% vs de-vigged market 68.1%: 9.1-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 45.4% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -6.2 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.267 trails league 0.322 by 0.056 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 70°F at first pitch: run environment x0.999. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +200 / -245 | +200 / -245 |
| Total | 7 | 7 (o-110 / u-112) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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