The slate for Sunday, September 20, 2026: 15 games, no qualifying plays, 6 on watch
15 games on the slate, 14 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 1 scratched by rule. 6 on the watch list at 0 units. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Saturday, September 19, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
The watch list — tracked, not staked — went 6-5 on paper. That record accumulates toward the promotion criteria; it never touches the staked ledger.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:10 PM ET | Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets | Cristopher Sánchez (2.93) vs Jonah Tong (3.43) | 4.2–4 | 8.2 / 7.5 |
| 1:35 PM ET | Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Michael Wacha (3.34) vs Lake Bachar (3.50) | 4.1–4.7 | 8.8 / 8.5 |
| 1:40 PM ET | Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds | David Peterson (5.11) vs Rhett Lowder (5.79) | 5.6–4.6 | 10.1 / 9.5 |
| 1:40 PM ET | Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians | Jack Perkins (6.14) vs Gavin Williams (3.78) | 3.6–4.7 | 8.4 / 7 |
| 1:40 PM ET | Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Patrick Sandoval (4.99) vs Griffin Jax (3.80) | 4.3–4.4 | 8.7 / 7.5 |
| 2:10 PM ET | Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros | Martín Pérez (3.07) vs Hunter Brown (3.43) | 4.3–4.1 | 8.4 / 8 |
| 2:10 PM ET | Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox | Troy Melton (2.52) vs Davis Martin (3.96) | 4.4–4.5 | 8.9 / 8 |
| 2:15 PM ET | Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals | Jake Irvin (5.51) vs Quinn Mathews (3.62) | 4.7–4.9 | 9.6 / 8.5 |
| 2:35 PM ET | Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers | Spencer Miles (2.65) vs Jacob deGrom (3.79) | 4–3.9 | 7.9 / 7.5 |
| 3:10 PM ET | Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies | Kade Anderson (5.33) vs Tomoyuki Sugano (5.49) | 5.8–6 | 11.8 / 10.5 |
| 4:07 PM ET | Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels | Dean Kremer (5.35) vs Ryan Johnson (4.88) | 4.4–4.6 | 9 / 8 |
| 4:10 PM ET | Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres | Sandy Alcantara (3.84) vs Walker Buehler (4.58) | 4.1–4.2 | 8.3 / 8 |
| 4:10 PM ET | New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Will Warren (3.89) vs Corbin Burnes (5.87) | 4.8–4.3 | 9.2 / 8 |
| 7:20 PM ET | Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles | Jacob Misiorowski (1.89) vs Brandon Young (3.65) | 4.7–3.8 | 8.4 / 7.5 |
| 4:10 PM ET | San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for LAD inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
🎯 The Daily Pick
No play cleared the strict Qualified gates today, so the always-on strategy carries the slate: New York Yankees ML (+106, BetOnline.ag) — New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 4:10 PM ET. Edge +2.6 pts at the best price, ranking score 0.721. 0 units through the proving window (ends September 8) — it grades onto its own public record, never the Qualified ledger. Full card and analysis on the site.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The mound mismatch: Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians. Gavin Williams (3.78 ERA) against Jack Perkins (6.14) is a 2.4-run ERA gap. The engine stabilizes both with FIP and innings before believing it — a raw ERA gap this wide usually shrinks under the hood, and the market has already priced most of what survives.
- The park: Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies. Coors Field carries a 1.24 park factor — solidly hitter-friendly. Known information, so it's in the posted total already; the question is whether this matchup's pitchers move the number off it. Our sim says 11.8 runs.
- The total: Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians. The sim lands on 8.4 runs against a 7 line — 1.4 toward the over. Totals remain in their paper proving period on the watch list: computed, published, graded at 0 units until the record earns promotion.
The watch list: tracked, not staked
market-provingBoston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays — Over 7.5 (+100, Fanatics) · model 53.4% · edge +3.4 ptsmarket-provingAtlanta Braves @ Houston Astros — Under 8 (-102, LowVig.ag) · model 56.2% · edge +5.7 ptsmarket-provingDetroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox — Under 8 (+106, LowVig.ag) · model 53.6% · edge +5.0 ptsmarket-provingWashington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals — Over 8.5 (-110, BetRivers) · model 58.9% · edge +6.5 ptsedge-bandMinnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels — Los Angeles Angels ML (+104, FanDuel) · model 50.0% · edge +1.0 ptsmarket-provingMiami Marlins @ San Diego Padres — Under 8 (-102, LowVig.ag) · model 54.4% · edge +4.0 pts
Watch picks clear some but not all gates, or belong to a market still proving itself on paper. Each is graded like a real pick at 0 units, on a record that never mixes with the staked ledger. When a segment reaches 100 graded picks with non-negative units and calibration inside 4 points, it gets promoted — publicly, as a version bump. Until then it is exactly this: watched.