Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Pittsburgh Pirates ML (-110, Caesars) · confidence 53.0% of 10,000 sims · edge +0.6 pts · 0u
Michael Wacha (3.34 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) vs Lake Bachar (3.50 ERA, 1.12 WHIP).
Projected 4.1–4.7; sim total 8.8 against a 8.5 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline -101 / -117 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -110 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 54.3% vs de-vigged market 51.8%: 2.5-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 53.0% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +0.6 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.292 vs league 0.322 (gap +0.031, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 74°F at first pitch: run environment x1.017. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -101 / -117 | +100 / -118 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-105 / u-114) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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