Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Philadelphia Phillies ML (-149, LowVig.ag) · confidence 55.2% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.6 pts · 0u
Cristopher Sánchez (2.93 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) vs Jonah Tong (3.43 ERA, 1.19 WHIP).
Projected 4.2–4; sim total 8.2 against a 7.5 line; park factor 0.96.
Market at board time: moneyline -159 / +135 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -149 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 51.4% vs de-vigged market 59.1%: 7.6-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 55.2% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.6 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Jonah Tong under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.300 vs league 0.322 (gap +0.022, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 67°F at first pitch: run environment x0.988. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -159 / +135 | -159 / +135 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-110 / u-108) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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