Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
St. Louis Cardinals ML (-121, LowVig.ag) · confidence 53.2% of 10,000 sims · edge -1.5 pts · 0u
Jake Irvin (5.51 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) vs Quinn Mathews (3.62 ERA, 1.39 WHIP).
Projected 4.7–4.9; sim total 9.6 against a 8.5 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline +110 / -130 (consensus at board time) · total 8.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -121 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.2% vs de-vigged market 54.3%: 2.1-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 53.2% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -1.5 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Quinn Mathews under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.299 vs league 0.322 (gap +0.023, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 89°F at first pitch: run environment x1.078 + 5% hot-day kicker vs away SP fly-ball (57% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 8.5 (-110, BetRivers) · model 58.9% · edge +6.5 pts · divergence +7.1 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +110 / -130 | +110 / -130 |
| Total | 8.5 | 8.5 (o-118 / u-102) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 8.5 (-110, BetRivers) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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