New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
New York Yankees ML (+106, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 51.1% of 10,000 sims · edge +2.6 pts · 0u
Will Warren (3.89 ERA, 1.36 WHIP) vs Corbin Burnes (5.87 ERA, 1.17 WHIP).
Projected 4.8–4.3; sim total 9.2 against a 8 line; park factor 1.05.
Market at board time: moneyline -101 / -117 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (8 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line +106 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 54.0% vs de-vigged market 48.2%: 5.8-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 51.1% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Rule 4 flag: Corbin Burnes under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.328 vs league 0.322 (gap -0.006, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
- ✳ Best of Board: the gates left no held plays today, so this is the model's top remaining lean — 0 units, NOT staked, published for transparency. The checks above show exactly which gate it failed.
- 🎯 Daily Pick (v0.15): the slate's top-ranked eligible candidate (score 0.721) under the always-on strategy's lower, precommitted bar. 0u through the proving window (ends 2026-09-08); separate public ledger, never mixed with the Qualified record.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -101 / -117 | +100 / -118 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-110 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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