Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 run line · confidence 43.9% of 10,000 sims · edge -5.4 pts · 0u
Jacob Misiorowski (1.89 ERA, 0.81 WHIP) vs Brandon Young (3.65 ERA, 1.37 WHIP).
Projected 4.7–3.8; sim total 8.4 against a 7.5 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline -205 / +172 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -200 exceeds the night-game juice cap (-180): pivoted off the moneyline to MIL -1.5 (covers 43.9% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 57.9% vs de-vigged market 64.6%: 6.7-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 43.9% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -5.4 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.353 vs league 0.322 (gap -0.031, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -205 / +172 | -210 / +176 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-110 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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