Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Houston Astros ML (-139, BetRivers) · confidence 53.0% of 10,000 sims · edge -5.2 pts · 0u
Martín Pérez (3.07 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) vs Hunter Brown (3.43 ERA, 1.29 WHIP).
Projected 4.3–4.1; sim total 8.4 against a 8 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline +125 / -146 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -139 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 48.8% vs de-vigged market 57.2%: 8.4-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 53.0% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -5.2 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.314 vs league 0.322 (gap +0.008, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (-102, LowVig.ag) · model 56.2% · edge +5.7 pts · divergence +7.3 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +125 / -146 | +130 / -153 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (-102, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+0.98u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date