Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
San Diego Padres ML (-138, FanDuel) · confidence 53.6% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.4 pts · 0u
Sandy Alcantara (3.84 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) vs Walker Buehler (4.58 ERA, 1.37 WHIP).
Projected 4.1–4.2; sim total 8.3 against a 8 line; park factor 0.95.
Market at board time: moneyline +123 / -144 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -138 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 50.4% vs de-vigged market 56.8%: 6.4-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 53.6% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.4 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.344 vs league 0.322 (gap -0.021, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 77°F at first pitch: run environment x1.027. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (-102, LowVig.ag) · model 54.4% · edge +4.0 pts · divergence +5.5 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +123 / -144 | +129 / -150 |
| Total | 8 | 8.5 (o-102 / u-118) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (-102, LowVig.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date