Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Chicago Cubs ML (-154, FanDuel) · confidence 58.2% of 10,000 sims · edge -2.5 pts · 0u
David Peterson (5.11 ERA, 1.55 WHIP) vs Rhett Lowder (5.79 ERA, 1.52 WHIP).
Projected 5.6–4.6; sim total 10.1 against a 9.5 line; park factor 1.04.
Market at board time: moneyline -157 / +134 (consensus at board time) · total 9.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -154 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 57.5% vs de-vigged market 58.8%: 1.3-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 58.2% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -2.5 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.336 vs league 0.322 (gap -0.013, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 88°F at first pitch: run environment x1.072. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -157 / +134 | -157 / +134 |
| Total | 9.5 | 9.5 (o-107 / u-111) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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