Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Los Angeles Angels ML (+104, FanDuel) · confidence 50.0% of 10,000 sims · edge +1.0 pts · 0u
Dean Kremer (5.35 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) vs Ryan Johnson (4.88 ERA, 1.34 WHIP).
Projected 4.4–4.6; sim total 9 against a 8 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline -118 / +102 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line +104 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.3% vs de-vigged market 47.8%: 4.6-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 50.1% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +1.0 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.276 trails league 0.322 by 0.046 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 80°F at first pitch: run environment x1.041. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (edge-band, 0u): Los Angeles Angels ML (+104, FanDuel) · model 50.0% · edge +1.0 pts · divergence +4.6 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -118 / +102 | -118 / +100 |
| Total | 8 | 8.5 (o-102 / u-120) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (edge-band, paper, 0u staked): Los Angeles Angels ML (+104, FanDuel) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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