Minnesota Twins @ San Francisco Giants
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Minnesota Twins ML (-112, LowVig.ag) · confidence 50.8% of 10,000 sims · edge -2.0 pts · 0u
Zebby Matthews (4.74 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) vs Blade Tidwell (4.56 ERA, 1.20 WHIP).
Projected 4.3–4.4; sim total 8.7 against a 8 line; park factor 0.94.
Market at board time: moneyline -120 / +101 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -112 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 49.4% vs de-vigged market 52.3%: 2.9-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 50.8% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -2.0 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Blade Tidwell under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.290 vs league 0.321 (gap +0.031, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 59°F at first pitch: run environment x0.957. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (+101, LowVig.ag) · model 57.0% · edge +7.2 pts · divergence +8.3 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -120 / +101 | -133 / +113 |
| Total | 8 | 7.5 (o-112 / u-108) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (+101, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+1.01u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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