The slate for Monday, September 21, 2026: 3 games, no qualifying plays, 1 on watch
3 games on the slate, 2 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 1 scratched by rule. 1 on the watch list at 0 units. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
What we learned: Monday, September 14, 2026 – Sunday, September 20, 2026
The engine ran 7 slates: 87 games simulated, 0 plays published (0u risked), 52 tracked on the watch list at 0 units, 7 scratched by rule. Every no-play day was a decision, not an outage: nothing cleared the gates at an allocatable price, and the leans that failed are on each day's board with reasons.
No staked picks were graded this week — the gates held everything back. The paper records below are where a quiet week still teaches.
The watch list on paper this week (flat 1u, 0 staked, never mixed into the ledger):
R8-hold4-2 · +0.29u paperedge-band2-1 · +0.84u papermarket-proving21-22 · -2.30u paper
These records accumulate toward the public promotion criteria — 100 graded picks, non-negative units, calibration inside 4 points — and nothing gets staked before then.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Sunday, September 20, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
The watch list — tracked, not staked — went 1-5 on paper. That record accumulates toward the promotion criteria; it never touches the staked ledger.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6:35 PM ET | Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles | Trey Yesavage (3.65) vs Shane Baz (4.11) | 4–4.3 | 8.4 / 7.5 |
| 9:45 PM ET | Minnesota Twins @ San Francisco Giants | Zebby Matthews (4.74) vs Blade Tidwell (4.56) | 4.3–4.4 | 8.7 / 8 |
| 6:40 PM ET | Washington Nationals @ Detroit Tigers | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for WSH, DET inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
No qualifying plays — and the best of what remained
Today's ✳ Best of Board is Baltimore Orioles ML (-107, LowVig.ag) (Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles) at 0 units: the model's top remaining choice, published with every gate it failed. We show it so you can see the reasoning; we don't stake it, and it never enters the ledger.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The total: Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles. The sim lands on 8.4 runs against a 7.5 line — 0.9 toward the over. Totals remain in their paper proving period on the watch list: computed, published, graded at 0 units until the record earns promotion.
The watch list: tracked, not staked
market-provingMinnesota Twins @ San Francisco Giants — Under 8 (+101, LowVig.ag) · model 57.0% · edge +7.2 pts
Watch picks clear some but not all gates, or belong to a market still proving itself on paper. Each is graded like a real pick at 0 units, on a record that never mixes with the staked ledger. When a segment reaches 100 graded picks with non-negative units and calibration inside 4 points, it gets promoted — publicly, as a version bump. Until then it is exactly this: watched.