Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Baltimore Orioles ML (-107, LowVig.ag) · confidence 51.6% of 10,000 sims · edge -0.1 pts · 0u
Trey Yesavage (3.65 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) vs Shane Baz (4.11 ERA, 1.35 WHIP).
Projected 4–4.3; sim total 8.4 against a 7.5 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline -107 / -110 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -107 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.8% vs de-vigged market 50.3%: 2.5-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 51.6% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -0.1 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.324 vs league 0.321 (gap -0.003, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- ✳ Best of Board: the gates left no held plays today, so this is the model's top remaining lean — 0 units, NOT staked, published for transparency. The checks above show exactly which gate it failed.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -107 / -110 | +101 / -120 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-114 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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