Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 run line · confidence 43.9% of 10,000 sims · edge -6.2 pts · 0u
Michael Soroka (3.45 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) vs Kyle Freeland (6.38 ERA, 1.47 WHIP).
Projected 6.1–5.5; sim total 11.5 against a 11 line; park factor 1.24.
Market at board time: moneyline -194 / +163 (consensus at board time) · total 11.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -185 exceeds the night-game juice cap (-180): pivoted off the moneyline to AZ -1.5 (covers 43.9% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 54.1% vs de-vigged market 63.4%: 9.4-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 43.9% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -6.2 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.344 vs league 0.322 (gap -0.022, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 77°F at first pitch: run environment x1.028. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 11 (-110, Bovada) · model 54.9% · edge +2.5 pts · divergence +3.8 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -194 / +163 | -160 / +135 |
| Total | 11 | 11 (o-110 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 11 (-110, Bovada) — WIN (+0.91u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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