The slate for Tuesday, September 22, 2026: 16 games, no qualifying plays, 7 on watch
16 games on the slate, 15 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 1 scratched by rule. 7 on the watch list at 0 units. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Monday, September 21, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
The watch list — tracked, not staked — went 1-0 on paper. That record accumulates toward the promotion criteria; it never touches the staked ledger.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:05 PM ET | Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees | Nick Martinez (2.94) vs Carlos Rodón (2.95) | 4.2–4.5 | 8.7 / 6.5 |
| 6:35 PM ET | Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles | Max Scherzer (6.07) vs Chris Bassitt (4.64) | 4.1–4.7 | 8.9 / 7 |
| 6:40 PM ET | Washington Nationals @ Detroit Tigers | Jackson Kent (6.40) vs Drew Anderson (3.62) | 4.5–4.8 | 9.3 / 8.5 |
| 6:40 PM ET | St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Andre Pallante (3.70) vs Jared Jones (4.17) | 3.9–4.6 | 8.5 / 7 |
| 6:40 PM ET | Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies | Dustin May (4.61) vs Zack Wheeler (2.99) | 4.6–4.4 | 9 / 7 |
| 6:45 PM ET | Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox | Parker Messick (2.57) vs Payton Tolle (3.02) | 4–4.2 | 8.2 / 6.5 |
| 7:05 PM ET | Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees | Drew Rasmussen (2.72) vs Max Fried (2.63) | 4–4.3 | 8.2 / 6.5 |
| 7:15 PM ET | Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves | Brandon Williamson (5.56) vs JR Ritchie (5.03) | 4–5.1 | 9.1 / 9 |
| 7:40 PM ET | Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals | Anthony Kay (4.41) vs Daniel Lynch IV (3.29) | 4.7–4.5 | 9.2 / 8 |
| 7:40 PM ET | Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs | Janson Junk (4.50) vs Shota Imanaga (3.80) | 4.4–5.3 | 9.8 / 6.5 |
| 8:05 PM ET | New York Mets @ Texas Rangers | Sean Manaea (4.74) vs MacKenzie Gore (4.67) | 4.4–4.3 | 8.6 / 8 |
| 8:40 PM ET | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies | Michael Soroka (3.45) vs Kyle Freeland (6.38) | 6.1–5.5 | 11.5 / 11 |
| 9:40 PM ET | Los Angeles Angels @ Athletics | Yusei Kikuchi (5.02) vs Brady Basso (4.50) | 4.5–4.6 | 9.1 / 9.5 |
| 9:40 PM ET | Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners | Cristian Javier (5.31) vs Logan Gilbert (3.69) | 4–4.1 | 8.1 / 7.5 |
| 9:45 PM ET | Minnesota Twins @ San Francisco Giants | Taj Bradley (3.81) vs Anthony Molina (4.18) | 3.9–4.1 | 8 / 7.5 |
| 10:10 PM ET | San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for LAD inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
No qualifying plays — and the best of what remained
Today's ✳ Best of Board is Baltimore Orioles ML (-117, LowVig.ag) (Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles) at 0 units: the model's top remaining choice, published with every gate it failed. We show it so you can see the reasoning; we don't stake it, and it never enters the ledger.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The total: Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs. The sim lands on 9.8 runs against a 6.5 line — 3.3 toward the over. Totals remain in their paper proving period on the watch list: computed, published, graded at 0 units until the record earns promotion.
- The mound mismatch: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies. Michael Soroka (3.45 ERA) against Kyle Freeland (6.38) is a 2.9-run ERA gap. The engine stabilizes both with FIP and innings before believing it — a raw ERA gap this wide usually shrinks under the hood, and the market has already priced most of what survives.
- The park: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies. Coors Field carries a 1.24 park factor — solidly hitter-friendly. Known information, so it's in the posted total already; the question is whether this matchup's pitchers move the number off it. Our sim says 11.5 runs.
The watch list: tracked, not staked
market-provingTampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees — Over 6.5 (-102, LowVig.ag) · model 59.1% · edge +8.6 ptsmarket-provingSt. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates — Under 7 (+105, BetMGM) · model 51.6% · edge +2.9 ptsmarket-provingCleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox — Over 6.5 (-120, Fanatics) · model 57.2% · edge +2.7 ptsmarket-provingCincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves — Under 9 (+103, LowVig.ag) · model 56.8% · edge +7.5 ptsmarket-provingNew York Mets @ Texas Rangers — Under 8 (-110, Fanatics) · model 55.3% · edge +2.9 ptsmarket-provingArizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies — Under 11 (-110, Bovada) · model 54.9% · edge +2.5 ptsmarket-provingLos Angeles Angels @ Athletics — Under 9.5 (-115, Bovada) · model 56.5% · edge +3.0 pts
Watch picks clear some but not all gates, or belong to a market still proving itself on paper. Each is graded like a real pick at 0 units, on a record that never mixes with the staked ledger. When a segment reaches 100 graded picks with non-negative units and calibration inside 4 points, it gets promoted — publicly, as a version bump. Until then it is exactly this: watched.