Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Atlanta Braves -1.5 run line · confidence 46.6% of 10,000 sims · edge -3.7 pts · 0u
Brandon Williamson (5.56 ERA, 1.53 WHIP) vs JR Ritchie (5.03 ERA, 1.47 WHIP).
Projected 4–5.1; sim total 9.1 against a 9 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline +158 / -190 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -182 exceeds the night-game juice cap (-180): pivoted off the moneyline to ATL -1.5 (covers 46.6% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 58.8% vs de-vigged market 62.8%: 4.0-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 46.6% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -3.7 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Brandon Williamson under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.258 trails league 0.322 by 0.064 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 83°F at first pitch: run environment x1.050. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 9 (+103, LowVig.ag) · model 56.8% · edge +7.5 pts · divergence +9.0 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +158 / -190 | +210 / -250 |
| Total | 9 | 7.5 (o+103 / u-121) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 9 (+103, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+1.03u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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