Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Chicago Cubs -1.5 run line · confidence 45.0% of 10,000 sims · edge -5.7 pts · 0u
Janson Junk (4.50 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) vs Shota Imanaga (3.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP).
Projected 4.4–5.3; sim total 9.8 against a 6.5 line; park factor 1.02.
Market at board time: moneyline +169 / -200 (consensus at board time) · total 6.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -195 exceeds the night-game juice cap (-180): pivoted off the moneyline to CHC -1.5 (covers 45.0% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 56.6% vs de-vigged market 64.2%: 7.6-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 45.0% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -5.7 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.332 vs league 0.322 (gap -0.010, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 59°F at first pitch: run environment x0.956. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +169 / -200 | +149 / -178 |
| Total | 6.5 | 6.5 (o-139 / u+116) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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