Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Boston Red Sox ML (-120, LowVig.ag) · confidence 52.7% of 10,000 sims · edge -1.9 pts · 0u
Parker Messick (2.57 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) vs Payton Tolle (3.02 ERA, 1.07 WHIP).
Projected 4–4.2; sim total 8.2 against a 6.5 line; park factor 1.06.
Market at board time: moneyline +108 / -127 (consensus at board time) · total 6.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -120 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 51.6% vs de-vigged market 53.8%: 2.2-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 52.7% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -1.9 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.350 vs league 0.322 (gap -0.028, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 59°F at first pitch: run environment x0.956. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 6.5 (-120, Fanatics) · model 57.2% · edge +2.7 pts · divergence +4.9 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +108 / -127 | +108 / -127 |
| Total | 6.5 | 6.5 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 6.5 (-120, Fanatics) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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