Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Baltimore Orioles ML (-117, LowVig.ag) · confidence 53.6% of 10,000 sims · edge -0.3 pts · 0u
Max Scherzer (6.07 ERA, 1.36 WHIP) vs Chris Bassitt (4.64 ERA, 1.55 WHIP).
Projected 4.1–4.7; sim total 8.9 against a 7 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline +103 / -120 (consensus at board time) · total 7.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -117 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 54.7% vs de-vigged market 52.5%: 2.1-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 53.6% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -0.3 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.311 vs league 0.322 (gap +0.010, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- ✳ Best of Board: the gates left no held plays today, so this is the model's top remaining lean — 0 units, NOT staked, published for transparency. The checks above show exactly which gate it failed.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +103 / -120 | +102 / -120 |
| Total | 7 | 7.5 (o-103 / u-120) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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