Minnesota Twins @ San Francisco Giants
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Minnesota Twins ML (-128, LowVig.ag) · confidence 51.4% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.8 pts · 0u
Taj Bradley (3.81 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) vs Anthony Molina (4.18 ERA, 1.11 WHIP).
Projected 3.9–4.1; sim total 8 against a 7.5 line; park factor 0.94.
Market at board time: moneyline -132 / +113 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -128 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 47.9% vs de-vigged market 54.8%: 6.8-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 51.4% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.8 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Anthony Molina under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.278 trails league 0.322 by 0.044 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 62°F at first pitch: run environment x0.967. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -132 / +113 | -132 / +113 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-103 / u-117) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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