St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Pittsburgh Pirates ML (-164, Caesars) · confidence 58.1% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.0 pts · 0u
Andre Pallante (3.70 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) vs Jared Jones (4.17 ERA, 1.19 WHIP).
Projected 3.9–4.6; sim total 8.5 against a 7 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline +145 / -172 (consensus at board time) · total 7.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -164 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 55.5% vs de-vigged market 60.8%: 5.3-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 58.1% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.0 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.280 trails league 0.322 by 0.042 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 59°F at first pitch: run environment x0.955. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 7 (+105, BetMGM) · model 51.6% · edge +2.9 pts · divergence +3.8 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +145 / -172 | +145 / -172 |
| Total | 7 | 7 (o-120 / u-102) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 7 (+105, BetMGM) — WIN (+1.05u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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