Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
New York Yankees ML (-123, BetUS) · confidence 53.4% of 10,000 sims · edge -1.8 pts · 0u
Drew Rasmussen (2.72 ERA, 0.93 WHIP) vs Max Fried (2.63 ERA, 0.98 WHIP).
Projected 4–4.3; sim total 8.2 against a 6.5 line; park factor 1.03.
Market at board time: moneyline +110 / -130 (consensus at board time) · total 6.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -123 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.5% vs de-vigged market 54.3%: 1.8-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 53.4% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -1.8 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.318 vs league 0.322 (gap +0.004, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 64°F at first pitch: run environment x0.976. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 6.5 (-102, LowVig.ag) · model 59.1% · edge +8.6 pts · divergence +10.2 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +110 / -130 | +119 / -140 |
| Total | 6.5 | 7 (o-110 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 6.5 (-102, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+0.98u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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