Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Atlanta Braves -1.5 run line · confidence 50.6% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.4 pts · 0u
Andrew Abbott (4.70 ERA, 1.47 WHIP) vs Chris Sale (2.18 ERA, 0.99 WHIP).
Projected 3.3–5; sim total 8.2 against a 7.5 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline +213 / -255 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -250 exceeds the night-game juice cap (-180): pivoted off the moneyline to ATL -1.5 (covers 50.6% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 64.9% vs de-vigged market 69.2%: 4.3-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 50.6% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.4 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.271 trails league 0.320 by 0.049 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 76°F at first pitch: run environment x1.022. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +213 / -255 | +180 / -215 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-110 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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