The slate for Wednesday, September 23, 2026: 16 games, no qualifying plays, 7 on watch
16 games on the slate, 15 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 1 scratched by rule. 7 on the watch list at 0 units. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Tuesday, September 22, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
The watch list — tracked, not staked — went 4-3 on paper. That record accumulates toward the promotion criteria; it never touches the staked ledger.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:10 PM ET | Washington Nationals @ Detroit Tigers | Richard Lovelady (3.86) vs Framber Valdez (4.06) | 4.6–4.7 | 9.3 / 7.5 |
| 1:35 PM ET | Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles | Max Scherzer (6.07) vs Chris Bassitt (4.64) | 4.2–4.8 | 9 / 8 |
| 3:45 PM ET | Minnesota Twins @ San Francisco Giants | Connor Prielipp (4.94) vs Cesar Perdomo (3.72) | 3.9–4.3 | 8.2 / 8 |
| 6:40 PM ET | St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Matthew Liberatore (5.36) vs Lake Bachar (3.56) | 3.9–4.9 | 8.8 / 7.5 |
| 6:40 PM ET | Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies | Logan Henderson (2.51) vs Aaron Nola (4.49) | 5–4.2 | 9.2 / 7.5 |
| 7:05 PM ET | Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees | Ian Seymour (4.38) vs Gerrit Cole (3.63) | 4.3–4.7 | 9 / 6.5 |
| 7:10 PM ET | Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox | Foster Griffin (3.67) vs Sonny Gray (2.82) | 4–4.6 | 8.5 / 6.5 |
| 7:15 PM ET | Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves | Andrew Abbott (4.70) vs Chris Sale (2.18) | 3.3–5 | 8.2 / 7.5 |
| 7:40 PM ET | Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals | Bryan Hudson (3.03) vs Seth Lugo (5.06) | 5.1–4.3 | 9.4 / 8.5 |
| 7:40 PM ET | Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs | Ryan Gusto (4.14) vs Kevin Gausman (4.55) | 4.4–5.1 | 9.5 / 6.5 |
| 8:05 PM ET | New York Mets @ Texas Rangers | Nolan McLean (3.18) vs Cody Bradford (4.19) | 4.3–4 | 8.3 / 7.5 |
| 8:40 PM ET | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies | Merrill Kelly (5.00) vs Mason Adams (5.09) | 5.9–5.9 | 11.8 / 11 |
| 9:40 PM ET | Los Angeles Angels @ Athletics | Walbert Ureña (2.74) vs Jeffrey Springs (6.18) | 5–4.3 | 9.3 / 9.5 |
| 10:10 PM ET | San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Robbie Ray (3.60) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2.51) | 4–4.7 | 8.7 / 8 |
| 10:10 PM ET | Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners | Ethan Pecko (3.77) vs George Kirby (4.24) | 4.1–4 | 8.2 / 7.5 |
| 6:35 PM ET | Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for TOR, BAL inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
🎯 The Daily Pick
No play cleared the strict Qualified gates today, so the always-on strategy carries the slate: Chicago White Sox ML (-113, BetOnline.ag) — Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals, 7:40 PM ET. Edge +1.5 pts at the best price, ranking score 0.623. 0 units through the proving window (ends September 8) — it grades onto its own public record, never the Qualified ledger. Full card and analysis on the site.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The total: Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs. The sim lands on 9.5 runs against a 6.5 line — 3.0 toward the over. Totals remain in their paper proving period on the watch list: computed, published, graded at 0 units until the record earns promotion.
- The mound mismatch: Los Angeles Angels @ Athletics. Walbert Ureña (2.74 ERA) against Jeffrey Springs (6.18) is a 3.4-run ERA gap. The engine stabilizes both with FIP and innings before believing it — a raw ERA gap this wide usually shrinks under the hood, and the market has already priced most of what survives.
- The park: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies. Coors Field carries a 1.24 park factor — solidly hitter-friendly. Known information, so it's in the posted total already; the question is whether this matchup's pitchers move the number off it. Our sim says 11.8 runs.
The watch list: tracked, not staked
market-provingWashington Nationals @ Detroit Tigers — Over 7.5 (-107, LowVig.ag) · model 57.4% · edge +5.8 ptsmarket-provingMinnesota Twins @ San Francisco Giants — Under 8 (-110, Bovada) · model 58.5% · edge +6.1 ptsmarket-provingSt. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates — Over 7.5 (+105, Fanatics) · model 52.9% · edge +4.1 ptsmarket-provingMilwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies — Over 7.5 (+107, LowVig.ag) · model 55.0% · edge +6.7 ptsedge-bandChicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals — Chicago White Sox ML (-113, BetOnline.ag) · model 54.6% · edge +1.5 ptsmarket-provingArizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies — Under 11 (+100, BetMGM) · model 53.4% · edge +3.4 ptsmarket-provingSan Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers — Under 8 (+100, Bovada) · model 54.5% · edge +4.5 pts
Watch picks clear some but not all gates, or belong to a market still proving itself on paper. Each is graded like a real pick at 0 units, on a record that never mixes with the staked ledger. When a segment reaches 100 graded picks with non-negative units and calibration inside 4 points, it gets promoted — publicly, as a version bump. Until then it is exactly this: watched.