Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Milwaukee Brewers ML (-123, LowVig.ag) · confidence 55.8% of 10,000 sims · edge +0.7 pts · 0u
Logan Henderson (2.51 ERA, 0.81 WHIP) vs Aaron Nola (4.49 ERA, 1.35 WHIP).
Projected 5–4.2; sim total 9.2 against a 7.5 line; park factor 1.01.
Market at board time: moneyline -130 / +112 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -123 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 57.1% vs de-vigged market 54.5%: 2.6-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 55.8% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +0.7 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.342 vs league 0.320 (gap -0.021, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 64°F at first pitch: run environment x0.977. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7.5 (+107, LowVig.ag) · model 55.0% · edge +6.7 pts · divergence +8.2 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -130 / +112 | -126 / +107 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7 (o-110 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7.5 (+107, LowVig.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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