Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Seattle Mariners ML (-120, LowVig.ag) · confidence 51.6% of 10,000 sims · edge -2.9 pts · 0u
Ethan Pecko (3.77 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) vs George Kirby (4.24 ERA, 1.39 WHIP).
Projected 4.1–4; sim total 8.2 against a 7.5 line; park factor 0.92.
Market at board time: moneyline +108 / -126 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -120 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 49.6% vs de-vigged market 53.7%: 4.1-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 51.6% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -2.9 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Ethan Pecko under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.323 vs league 0.320 (gap -0.003, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +108 / -126 | +108 / -127 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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