Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Boston Red Sox ML (-124, BetRivers) · confidence 55.0% of 10,000 sims · edge -0.3 pts · 0u
Foster Griffin (3.67 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) vs Sonny Gray (2.82 ERA, 1.16 WHIP).
Projected 4–4.6; sim total 8.5 against a 6.5 line; park factor 1.06.
Market at board time: moneyline +114 / -132 (consensus at board time) · total 6.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -124 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 55.1% vs de-vigged market 54.9%: 0.2-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 55.0% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -0.3 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.344 vs league 0.320 (gap -0.024, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 56°F at first pitch: run environment x0.942. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +114 / -132 | +118 / -139 |
| Total | 6.5 | 6.5 (o-119 / u-101) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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