Washington Nationals @ Detroit Tigers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Detroit Tigers ML (-150, LowVig.ag) · confidence 54.7% of 10,000 sims · edge -5.3 pts · 0u
Richard Lovelady (3.86 ERA, 1.84 WHIP) vs Framber Valdez (4.06 ERA, 1.36 WHIP).
Projected 4.6–4.7; sim total 9.3 against a 7.5 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline +134 / -155 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -150 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 50.7% vs de-vigged market 58.7%: 8.0-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 54.7% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -5.3 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Richard Lovelady under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.287 vs league 0.320 (gap +0.033, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 66°F at first pitch: run environment x0.985. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7.5 (-107, LowVig.ag) · model 57.4% · edge +5.8 pts · divergence +7.3 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +134 / -155 | +144 / -170 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o-110 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7.5 (-107, LowVig.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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