San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 run line · confidence 42.8% of 10,000 sims · edge -7.0 pts · 0u
Robbie Ray (3.60 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2.51 ERA, 0.87 WHIP).
Projected 4–4.7; sim total 8.7 against a 8 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline +184 / -220 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -212 exceeds the night-game juice cap (-180): pivoted off the moneyline to LAD -1.5 (covers 42.8% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 55.9% vs de-vigged market 66.1%: 10.3-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 42.8% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -7.0 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.391 vs league 0.320 (gap -0.071, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (+100, Bovada) · model 54.5% · edge +4.5 pts · divergence +5.6 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +184 / -220 | +146 / -173 |
| Total | 8 | 7.5 (o-109 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (+100, Bovada) — WIN (+1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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