Minnesota Twins @ San Francisco Giants
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Minnesota Twins ML (-148, BetRivers) · confidence 52.6% of 10,000 sims · edge -7.0 pts · 0u
Connor Prielipp (4.94 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) vs Cesar Perdomo (3.72 ERA, 1.50 WHIP).
Projected 3.9–4.3; sim total 8.2 against a 8 line; park factor 0.94.
Market at board time: moneyline -155 / +131 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -148 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 46.9% vs de-vigged market 58.4%: 11.5-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 52.6% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -7.0 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Cesar Perdomo under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.277 trails league 0.320 by 0.043 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 70°F at first pitch: run environment x1.000. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (-110, Bovada) · model 58.5% · edge +6.1 pts · divergence +7.4 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -155 / +131 | -155 / +134 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (-110, Bovada) — WIN (+0.91u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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