St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Pittsburgh Pirates ML (-129, BetRivers) · confidence 57.1% of 10,000 sims · edge +0.7 pts · 0u
Matthew Liberatore (5.36 ERA, 1.49 WHIP) vs Lake Bachar (3.56 ERA, 1.14 WHIP).
Projected 3.9–4.9; sim total 8.8 against a 7.5 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline +116 / -135 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -129 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 58.8% vs de-vigged market 55.4%: 3.4-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 57.1% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +0.7 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.271 trails league 0.320 by 0.049 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 63°F at first pitch: run environment x0.972. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7.5 (+105, Fanatics) · model 52.9% · edge +4.1 pts · divergence +5.1 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +116 / -135 | +117 / -138 |
| Total | 7.5 | 7.5 (o+100 / u-120) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7.5 (+105, Fanatics) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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