Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 run line · confidence 44.6% of 10,000 sims · edge -6.1 pts · 0u
Eduardo Rodriguez (2.89 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) vs Tanner Gordon (6.01 ERA, 1.55 WHIP).
Projected 6–5.4; sim total 11.4 against a 10 line; park factor 1.24.
Market at board time: moneyline -195 / +163 (consensus at board time) · total 10.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -188 exceeds the day-game juice cap (-170): pivoted off the moneyline to AZ -1.5 (covers 44.6% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 54.8% vs de-vigged market 63.5%: 8.7-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 44.6% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -6.1 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.346 vs league 0.316 (gap -0.031, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 75°F at first pitch: run environment x1.019. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -195 / +163 | -194 / +162 |
| Total | 10 | 10 (o-110 / u-110) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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