The slate for Thursday, September 24, 2026: 12 games, no qualifying plays, 7 on watch
12 games on the slate, 11 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 1 scratched by rule. 7 on the watch list at 0 units. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Wednesday, September 23, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
The watch list — tracked, not staked — went 3-4 on paper. That record accumulates toward the promotion criteria; it never touches the staked ledger.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:35 PM ET | St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Kyle Leahy (3.65) vs Paul Skenes (3.91) | 3.9–4.6 | 8.4 / 7 |
| 2:10 PM ET | Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals | David Sandlin (6.29) vs Randy Dobnak (3.08) | 4.8–4.6 | 9.4 / 9 |
| 2:20 PM ET | Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs | Tyler Phillips (3.45) vs Matthew Boyd (4.06) | 4.4–5.1 | 9.6 / 7 |
| 2:35 PM ET | New York Mets @ Texas Rangers | Zac Thornton (3.40) vs Kumar Rocker (4.47) | 4.4–4.2 | 8.6 / 8 |
| 3:10 PM ET | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies | Eduardo Rodriguez (2.89) vs Tanner Gordon (6.01) | 6–5.4 | 11.4 / 10 |
| 6:45 PM ET | Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox | Daniel Espino (4.73) vs Ranger Suarez (3.27) | 3.9–4.6 | 8.5 / 7 |
| 7:05 PM ET | Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees | Ian Seymour (4.38) vs Cam Schlittler (1.94) | 3.8–4.7 | 8.5 / 6 |
| 7:15 PM ET | Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves | Brady Singer (5.67) vs Tyler Mahle (3.81) | 3.6–5.2 | 8.8 / 7.5 |
| 9:40 PM ET | Houston Astros @ Athletics | Peter Lambert (3.70) vs Mason Barnett (7.16) | 5.2–4.5 | 9.7 / 10.5 |
| 9:40 PM ET | Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners | Grayson Rodriguez (5.96) vs Bryan Woo (3.92) | 3.8–4.3 | 8.1 / 7 |
| 10:10 PM ET | San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Nick Pivetta (3.30) vs Tyler Glasnow (3.46) | 4.1–4.5 | 8.7 / 8 |
| 6:05 PM ET | Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for MIL inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
🎯 The Daily Pick
No play cleared the strict Qualified gates today, so the always-on strategy carries the slate: Boston Red Sox ML (-123, BetOnline.ag) — Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox, 6:45 PM ET. Edge +0.3 pts at the best price, ranking score 0.398. 0 units through the proving window (ends September 8) — it grades onto its own public record, never the Qualified ledger. Full card and analysis on the site.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The mound mismatch: Houston Astros @ Athletics. Peter Lambert (3.70 ERA) against Mason Barnett (7.16) is a 3.5-run ERA gap. The engine stabilizes both with FIP and innings before believing it — a raw ERA gap this wide usually shrinks under the hood, and the market has already priced most of what survives.
- The total: Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs. The sim lands on 9.6 runs against a 7 line — 2.6 toward the over. Totals remain in their paper proving period on the watch list: computed, published, graded at 0 units until the record earns promotion.
- The park: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies. Coors Field carries a 1.24 park factor — solidly hitter-friendly. Known information, so it's in the posted total already; the question is whether this matchup's pitchers move the number off it. Our sim says 11.4 runs.
The watch list: tracked, not staked
market-provingChicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals — Under 9 (-115, LowVig.ag) · model 55.9% · edge +2.4 ptsmarket-provingMiami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs — Over 7 (-102, LowVig.ag) · model 58.4% · edge +7.9 ptsmarket-provingNew York Mets @ Texas Rangers — Under 8 (-102, BetMGM) · model 55.4% · edge +4.9 ptsmarket-provingTampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees — Over 6 (-107, LowVig.ag) · model 60.8% · edge +9.1 ptsmarket-provingCincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves — Over 7.5 (-107, LowVig.ag) · model 53.8% · edge +2.1 ptsmarket-provingHouston Astros @ Athletics — Under 10.5 (-104, MyBookie.ag) · model 54.6% · edge +3.6 ptsmarket-provingSan Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers — Under 8 (-107, LowVig.ag) · model 54.6% · edge +2.9 pts
Watch picks clear some but not all gates, or belong to a market still proving itself on paper. Each is graded like a real pick at 0 units, on a record that never mixes with the staked ledger. When a segment reaches 100 graded picks with non-negative units and calibration inside 4 points, it gets promoted — publicly, as a version bump. Until then it is exactly this: watched.