New York Mets @ Texas Rangers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Texas Rangers ML (-128, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 51.5% of 10,000 sims · edge -4.7 pts · 0u
Zac Thornton (3.40 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) vs Kumar Rocker (4.47 ERA, 1.42 WHIP).
Projected 4.4–4.2; sim total 8.6 against a 8 line; park factor 0.98.
Market at board time: moneyline +112 / -131 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -128 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 48.4% vs de-vigged market 54.6%: 6.2-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 51.5% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -4.6 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.316 vs league 0.316 (gap -0.001, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (-102, BetMGM) · model 55.4% · edge +4.9 pts · divergence +6.5 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +112 / -131 | +111 / -130 |
| Total | 8 | 8 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (-102, BetMGM) — WIN (+0.98u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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