Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Atlanta Braves -1.5 run line · confidence 49.9% of 10,000 sims · edge -2.9 pts · 0u
Brady Singer (5.67 ERA, 1.56 WHIP) vs Tyler Mahle (3.81 ERA, 1.22 WHIP).
Projected 3.6–5.2; sim total 8.8 against a 7.5 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline +183 / -216 (consensus at board time) · total 7.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -208 exceeds the night-game juice cap (-180): pivoted off the moneyline to ATL -1.5 (covers 49.9% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 63.3% vs de-vigged market 65.9%: 2.6-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 49.9% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -2.9 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.271 trails league 0.316 by 0.045 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 69°F at first pitch: run environment x0.997. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7.5 (-107, LowVig.ag) · model 53.8% · edge +2.1 pts · divergence +3.1 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +183 / -216 | +191 / -225 |
| Total | 7.5 | 8 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7.5 (-107, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+0.94u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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