San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-169, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 57.3% of 10,000 sims · edge -5.5 pts · 0u
Nick Pivetta (3.30 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) vs Tyler Glasnow (3.46 ERA, 0.96 WHIP).
Projected 4.1–4.5; sim total 8.7 against a 8 line; park factor 1.00.
Market at board time: moneyline +146 / -174 (consensus at board time) · total 8.
Circuit-breaker log (6 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -169 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 53.7% vs de-vigged market 61.0%: 7.3-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 57.3% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -5.5 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Nick Pivetta under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.375 vs league 0.316 (gap -0.059, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 8 (-107, LowVig.ag) · model 54.6% · edge +2.9 pts · divergence +4.6 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +146 / -174 | +145 / -172 |
| Total | 8 | 7.5 (o-117 / u-104) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 8 (-107, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+0.94u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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