Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Chicago Cubs -1.5 run line · confidence 43.0% of 10,000 sims · edge -6.2 pts · 0u
Tyler Phillips (3.45 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) vs Matthew Boyd (4.06 ERA, 1.22 WHIP).
Projected 4.4–5.1; sim total 9.6 against a 7 line; park factor 1.02.
Market at board time: moneyline +170 / -200 (consensus at board time) · total 7.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -193 exceeds the day-game juice cap (-170): pivoted off the moneyline to CHC -1.5 (covers 43.0% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 54.9% vs de-vigged market 64.3%: 9.3-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 43.0% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -6.3 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.311 vs league 0.316 (gap +0.005, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 64°F at first pitch: run environment x0.976. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 7 (-102, LowVig.ag) · model 58.4% · edge +7.9 pts · divergence +8.8 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +170 / -200 | +170 / -208 |
| Total | 7 | 7 (o-110 / u-111) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 7 (-102, LowVig.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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