Houston Astros @ Athletics
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Houston Astros ML (-158, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 57.9% of 10,000 sims · edge -3.3 pts · 0u
Peter Lambert (3.70 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) vs Mason Barnett (7.16 ERA, 1.75 WHIP).
Projected 5.2–4.5; sim total 9.7 against a 10.5 line; park factor 1.02.
Market at board time: moneyline -162 / +138 (consensus at board time) · total 10.5.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -158 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 56.3% vs de-vigged market 59.5%: 3.3-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 57.9% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -3.3 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Mason Barnett under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.318 vs league 0.316 (gap -0.002, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 85°F at first pitch: run environment x1.061 + 5% hot-day kicker vs home SP fly-ball (63% air outs), away SP fly-ball (62% air outs). Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 10.5 (-104, MyBookie.ag) · model 54.6% · edge +3.6 pts · divergence +5.1 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -162 / +138 | -170 / +144 |
| Total | 10.5 | 10.5 (o-114 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 10.5 (-104, MyBookie.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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