St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Pittsburgh Pirates ML (-158, BetUS) · confidence 57.3% of 10,000 sims · edge -3.9 pts · 0u
Kyle Leahy (3.65 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) vs Paul Skenes (3.91 ERA, 1.13 WHIP).
Projected 3.9–4.6; sim total 8.4 against a 7 line; park factor 0.97.
Market at board time: moneyline +137 / -162 (consensus at board time) · total 7.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -158 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 55.2% vs de-vigged market 59.4%: 4.2-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 57.3% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -3.9 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 flag: away 14-day wOBA 0.272 trails league 0.316 by 0.044 (threshold 0.035). 8% run tax applied to the away run rate.
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 60°F at first pitch: run environment x0.961. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +137 / -162 | +139 / -164 |
| Total | 7 | 7 (o-110 / u-110) |
Capture caveat, verbatim: first capture was after first pitch — weak close.
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
All games this day · Pick archive · The Morning Line for this date