Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Chicago White Sox ML (-128, BetUS) · confidence 53.3% of 10,000 sims · edge -2.8 pts · 0u
David Sandlin (6.29 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) vs Randy Dobnak (3.08 ERA, 1.33 WHIP).
Projected 4.8–4.6; sim total 9.4 against a 9 line; park factor 1.03.
Market at board time: moneyline -130 / +112 (consensus at board time) · total 9.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -128 within the day-game juice cap (-170; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 52.1% vs de-vigged market 54.5%: 2.4-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 53.3% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -2.8 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: David Sandlin under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.317 vs league 0.316 (gap -0.001, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 75°F at first pitch: run environment x1.019. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Under 9 (-115, LowVig.ag) · model 55.9% · edge +2.4 pts · divergence +3.7 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | -130 / +112 | -138 / +116 |
| Total | 9 | 9 (o-101 / u-120) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
❌ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Under 9 (-115, LowVig.ag) — LOSS (-1.00u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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