Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Seattle Mariners -1.5 run line · confidence 40.3% of 10,000 sims · edge -6.9 pts · 0u
Grayson Rodriguez (5.96 ERA, 1.54 WHIP) vs Bryan Woo (3.92 ERA, 1.08 WHIP).
Projected 3.8–4.3; sim total 8.1 against a 7 line; park factor 0.92.
Market at board time: moneyline +180 / -212 (consensus at board time) · total 7.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 fired: market line -200 exceeds the night-game juice cap (-180): pivoted off the moneyline to SEA -1.5 (covers 40.3% of sims).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 54.0% vs de-vigged market 65.5%: 11.5-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 40.3% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -6.9 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.291 vs league 0.316 (gap +0.025, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather: roofed park, no adjustment (totals paper track).
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +180 / -212 | +114 / -133 |
| Total | 7 | 7 (o-3 / u-116) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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