Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Boston Red Sox ML (-123, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 55.4% of 10,000 sims · edge +0.3 pts · 0u
Daniel Espino (4.73 ERA, 1.43 WHIP) vs Ranger Suarez (3.27 ERA, 1.20 WHIP).
Projected 3.9–4.6; sim total 8.5 against a 7 line; park factor 1.06.
Market at board time: moneyline +110 / -128 (consensus at board time) · total 7.
Circuit-breaker log (9 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -123 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 56.8% vs de-vigged market 54.1%: 2.7-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 55.4% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is +0.3 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 flag: Daniel Espino under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.333 vs league 0.316 (gap -0.017, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 58°F at first pitch: run environment x0.953. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
- ✳ Best of Board: the gates left no held plays today, so this is the model's top remaining lean — 0 units, NOT staked, published for transparency. The checks above show exactly which gate it failed.
- 🎯 Daily Pick (v0.15): the slate's top-ranked eligible candidate (score 0.398) under the always-on strategy's lower, precommitted bar. 0u through the proving window (ends 2026-09-08); separate public ledger, never mixed with the Qualified record.
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +110 / -128 | +110 / -130 |
| Total | 7 | 6.5 (o-115 / u-105) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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