Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
New York Yankees ML (-145, BetOnline.ag) · confidence 58.1% of 10,000 sims · edge -1.1 pts · 0u
Ian Seymour (4.38 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) vs Cam Schlittler (1.94 ERA, 0.91 WHIP).
Projected 3.8–4.7; sim total 8.5 against a 6 line; park factor 1.03.
Market at board time: moneyline +129 / -150 (consensus at board time) · total 6.
Circuit-breaker log (7 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: market line -145 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 8 check passed: raw model 58.2% vs de-vigged market 57.9%: 0.4-point divergence within the 12-point cap (blended to 58.1% at MODEL_WEIGHT=0.5).
- Edge gate: model edge vs offered price is -1.1 pts (minimum 2). No allocation; a good side at a bad price is a bad bet.
- Rule 4 check passed: both starters carry full-season workloads.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.285 vs league 0.316 (gap +0.031, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
- Weather (totals paper track ONLY): 62°F at first pitch: run environment x0.968. Applied to the paper totals pick; the staked board ignores weather entirely.
👁 Watch (market-proving, 0u): Over 6 (-107, LowVig.ag) · model 60.8% · edge +9.1 pts · divergence +10.8 pts
Open vs close
| Market | Board time | Close |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (away / home) | +129 / -150 | +124 / -145 |
| Total | 6 | 6 (o-105 / u-115) |
The close is the last pre-first-pitch capture. Movement toward a side after we post is the fastest honest read on pick quality — see the CLV column on the ledger.
✅ Watch pick (market-proving, paper, 0u staked): Over 6 (-107, LowVig.ag) — WIN (+0.94u paper).
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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