Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants
Graded — this page is the complete record.
The lean (0 units — logged, not staked)
Los Angeles Dodgers ML · confidence 57.1% of 10,000 sims · 0u
Tarik Skubal (2.85 ERA, 0.99 WHIP) vs Yunior Marte (4.66 ERA, 1.40 WHIP).
Projected 4.6–3.7; sim total 8.3 against a 8.5 line; park factor 0.94.
No market feed captured for this game's board.
Circuit-breaker log (4 checks)
- Rule 2 check passed: model-fair (no market line) line -133 within the night-game juice cap (-180; night -180, day -170, day = first pitch before 17:00 venue-local).
- Rule 4 flag: Yunior Marte under 60 IP this deep in the season (limited workload / possible IL return). Volume freeze: confidence downgraded one tier.
- Rule 6 check passed: away 14-day wOBA 0.359 vs league 0.317 (gap -0.042, threshold 0.035).
- Rules 3/5 (velocity/spin telemetry): manual review required: Statcast feed not wired.
No stake rode on this game. The lean and its failed gates above are the whole position: passing is a position too.
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