The slate for Friday, September 25, 2026: 17 games, no qualifying plays
17 games on the slate, 12 simulated 10,000 times each, and nothing cleared the gates — no manufactured pick, no exceptions. 5 scratched by rule. The full board, with every circuit-breaker check printed, is on the site.
Yesterday on the ledger
No staked plays were graded for Thursday, September 24, 2026 — the gates published nothing, so nothing rode. Passing is a position too, and it grades itself.
The watch list — tracked, not staked — went 4-3 on paper. That record accumulates toward the promotion criteria; it never touches the staked ledger.
Running ledger: 4-6 · -2.25u · ROI -34.7%, every entry public and append-only.
Today's slate, game by game
| First pitch | Game | Starters (ERA) | Projected score | Sim total / line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:05 PM ET | Chicago Cubs @ Boston Red Sox | Clay Holmes (3.25) vs Alec Gamboa (1.16) | 4.6–4.5 | 9.1 / 9.5 |
| 4:10 PM ET | Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees | Brandon Young (3.62) vs Brendan Beck (8.22) | 4.5–4.7 | 9.2 / 9.5 |
| 5:35 PM ET | Chicago Cubs @ Boston Red Sox | David Peterson (4.96) vs Brayan Bello (4.49) | 4.9–4.7 | 9.6 / 9.5 |
| 6:40 PM ET | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers | Bubba Chandler (4.34) vs Jackson Jobe (3.98) | 4.4–4.5 | 8.9 / 9.5 |
| 6:40 PM ET | Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Freddy Peralta (4.56) vs Cristopher Sánchez (2.93) | 4.2–4.6 | 8.8 / 9.5 |
| 7:40 PM ET | Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals | Gavin Williams (3.63) vs Noah Cameron (3.92) | 4.5–4.2 | 8.6 / 8.5 |
| 7:40 PM ET | Colorado Rockies @ Chicago White Sox | Tomoyuki Sugano (5.36) vs Sean Burke (3.40) | 4.3–5.3 | 9.7 / 9.5 |
| 7:40 PM ET | St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers | Michael McGreevy (3.84) vs Robert Gasser (4.01) | 3.8–4.9 | 8.8 / 9.5 |
| 8:10 PM ET | Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins | Jacob deGrom (3.86) vs Joe Ryan (3.83) | 4.3–4.4 | 8.7 / 8.5 |
| 9:40 PM ET | Houston Astros @ Athletics | Hunter Brown (3.26) vs Jacob Lopez (5.68) | 5.1–4.4 | 9.5 / 9.5 |
| 10:10 PM ET | Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners | Reid Detmers (3.47) vs Bryce Miller (3.99) | 4–3.9 | 7.8 / 8.5 |
| 10:15 PM ET | Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants | Tarik Skubal (2.85) vs Yunior Marte (4.66) | 4.6–3.7 | 8.3 / 8.5 |
| 4:05 PM ET | Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for NYY inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
| 6:45 PM ET | New York Mets @ Washington Nationals | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for NYM inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
| 7:07 PM ET | Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for TOR inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
| 7:10 PM ET | Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for ATL inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
| 9:40 PM ET | Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres | Scratched — Rule 7: Late-Line Circuit Breaker: Starter TBD for SD inside the pre-game window. Automatic scratch, no position. | ||
Projections are the engine's 10,000-simulation averages, already blended toward the de-vigged market. ★ marks the free pick. Held plays show no numbers on purpose: a projection plus a total is most of a pick. Every matchup links to its permanent pick page, which completes once the game grades.
No qualifying plays — and the best of what remained
Today's ✳ Best of Board is Milwaukee Brewers ML (St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers) at 0 units: the model's top remaining choice, published with every gate it failed. We show it so you can see the reasoning; we don't stake it, and it never enters the ledger.
Three angles a bettor would actually check
- The mound mismatch: Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees. Brandon Young (3.62 ERA) against Brendan Beck (8.22) is a 4.6-run ERA gap. The engine stabilizes both with FIP and innings before believing it — a raw ERA gap this wide usually shrinks under the hood, and the market has already priced most of what survives.
- The cold bats: St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers. Rule 6 fired — the road offense's trailing-14-day wOBA sits far enough under league that the engine taxes its scoring 8%, a size set by a full-season backtest, printed on the card.
- The total: Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners. The sim lands on 7.8 runs against a 8.5 line — 0.7 toward the under. Totals remain in their paper proving period on the watch list: computed, published, graded at 0 units until the record earns promotion.